Daily Insight: That Thump Was Louder Than We Thought
Written by Brent Vondera | St. Louis | Acropolis Investment Management   
Thursday, 22 December 2011 07:00

U.S. stocks held in there quite well yesterday considering that over 500 euro-zone banks felt the need to take advantage of the ECB’s latest lending facility (for a grand total of €489 billion) and we were coming off of a big bounce the day before.

 

There are also signs that France will see its credit rating downgraded from AAA status, which has meaningful consequences for the size of its bailout fund.  The fact that Italy has fallen back into contraction doesn’t help matters. (Italy and Spain are responsible for 30% of the guarantees on the very bailout fund that is tasked with saving them if need be – how’s that for a laugh..or cry?)

 

Utilities, energy and consumer staples led the broad market to its gain.  Unusual to have a cyclical like energy join areas of safety but crude returned to $99/bbl after the latest energy report showed a huge drawdown in stockpiles – a seasonal thing as we typically export more oil at the end of the year, but it was more than analysts were expecting.

 

That thumping the housing market has taken over the past few years was harder than previously believed as the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revised existing-home sales back to 2007 down by 14.3%, or 2.9 million units.  More on this beyond the click…

 

Market Activity for December 21, 2011

Index

Close

Change

% Change

YTD

1 Yr Rolling %

Dow Jones

12107.74

+4.16

+0.03%

4.58%

4.74%

S&P 500 - Large Cap

1243.72

+2.42

+0.19%

-1.11%

-1.20%

S&P 400 - Mid Cap

871.92

+1.97

+0.23%

-3.89%

-4.45%

        S&P 600 – Small Cap

415.60

+2.03

+0.49%

-0.03%

-1.13%

EAFE - International

1384.81

-2.97

-0.21%

-16.49%

-15.77%

EM - Emerging Markets

916.20

+15.41

+1.71%

-20.43%

-18.67%

NASDAQ

2577.97

-25.76

-0.99%

-2.82%

-3.50%

REIT

218.57

+0.43

+0.20%

0.70%

+1.57%

Barclays Aggregate Bond

1760.87

-3.34

-0.19%

7.30%

7.64%


Sector Activity for December 21, 2011

Index

Day Change

YTD

Consumer Discretionary

+0.34%

3.47%

Consumer Staples

+1.10%

10.27%

Energy

+1.16%

1.51%

Financials

+0.58%

-19.59%

Health Care

+0.74%

9.15%

Industrials

+0.21%

-3.67%

Information Tech

-1.95%

-0.27%

Basic Materials

+0.30%

-12.22%

Telecoms

+0.43%

-1.63%

Utilities

+1.48%

13.59%

 

Existing Home Sales


So the past few years of existing home sales were revised lower and the previous reporting month (October) was too as it showed sales of 4.25 million at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (previously reported at 4.97 million).    The November reading did rise 4.0% from that level, up to 4.42 million SAAR, but it missed expectations of 5.05 million.

 

The supply numbers did fall though as the month worth of supply came in at 7.0, down from the 7.7 in October.

 

The median price of an existing home rose $3,400 to $164,200 – that’s just 5% above the nine-year low hit back in February, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see us test that level ($156,100 hit back in Feb.) again.

 

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Have a great day!

 

Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Phone: 636-449-4900

 
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